Publish at February 01 2020 Updated November 13 2025
We sometimes smile when we look back at the foresight of flying machines or the first poetic uses of the telephone or learning machines. Foresight is never quite right, even if it hints at possibilities. Retro-prospect teaches us about an era's way of projecting itself and feeling the world. From the horoscope or the café counter with the regulars, or the caravan with the fortune-teller, we can see what tomorrow might bring. But how reliable is all this? What are the differences between anticipations, forecasts and predictions?
Foresight owes a great deal to Gaston Berger, considered one of the creators of a "science of the man to come". Here are five imperatives identified by Gaston Berger for a forward-looking attitude:
This rational, holistic approach to anticipating change is reflected in the work of associations and consultancies such as the Institut Montaigne, Futuribles, the Société Française de Prospective and the Cercle de la Prospective.
The transitions we face are at once societal, economic, demographic, climatic and digital. Studies on the evolution of professions, for example by the CNFPT, or the CEREQ, surveys of populations targeted by public policies or decision-makers, and networks of researchers, such as the IPCC, which is currently receiving a great deal of media coverage, even offer forecasts rather than conjectures.
Some, like Reporterre, even venture frightening descriptions. More simply, monitoring and documentalist networks, as well as videos of testimonials and exemplary practices (see the film Demain), give us a glimpse of what could happen. And then there are the Research Colloquia, where hot issues and ongoing investigations are presented. But we can also imagine meetings of Jules Verne-style anticipation writers (see Bright Mirror conference) and, of course, data mining studies cross-referencing gigantic databases.
Foresight is all about methodology. In the simplest terms, it involves :
Several tools are mobilized at each stage, such as: prospective diagnoses, systemic analyses, working groups, workshops to produce deliverables, operational prospective groups, etc. This material leads to choices of prospective scenarios, a target vision and action plans. The quality of the approach is based in part on the variety of players involved, and on communication between them to enrich perspectives throughout the investigation.
The excellence of this method was demonstrated by Thierry Gaudin's work in "2100 récit d'un prochain siècle". Reading this work leaves you speechless, so accurate is its analysis, for example, of the rise of terrorism and its consequences. The book was written in the 90s, and many of its projections are now coming true. Read it, it's amazing!
The scenario method is resolutely action-oriented. It is relevant when interdependent groups are unable to resolve the complex problems in which they find themselves. It is based on understanding other points of view, learning to relate to each other and collaborating on scenarios.
Alain de Vulpian is a sociologist who founded Cofremca, a company whose aim was to anticipate social trends. His company was a huge success. He devised and perfected a method he called socioperception, and set out to train socioperceptives to be vigilant and discerning. For foresight is above all a state of mind.
For Otto Scharmer, all information is already present in a sufficiently heterogeneous group. The emergent future is accessible when people manage to connect with each other. This involves developing a presence with one another and focusing on the authentic question that runs through the social field. Letting go of cynicism, fears and inward-looking attitudes, and welcoming the deep emotions, visions and perspectives that emerge in the form of visions, metaphors and creative energy.
For example, spotting weak signals according to the 2%/98% law, which strives to discern light noises heralding heavier trends. 2% of facts, data and information explain 98% of phenomena. How can Big Data provide new insights?
Futurology is the term used to describe all forward-looking research aimed at predicting trends in the scientific, technical, economic, social and political evolution of mankind. This futurology, which aims to put some order between future, future, anticipation, utopia, prospective, prediction, forecasting, etc., is already being used by "conspirators".
Already, "conspirators of the future" are welcoming what's emerging, and toolkits are available to help us understand what's coming. Until we can use all these resources and learn foresight for ourselves, here's what 7 futurists have to say:
It's all a dream come true!
Sources
Adam Kahane prospective scenario http://dialogue-ic.com/transformative-scenario-planning/
Thierry Gaudin Narrative of the next century https://2100.org/gaudin/90/2100-recit-prochain-siecle/
Blue Nove conference Bright mirror https://bluenove.com/blog/bright-mirror-prototypez-votre-futur-desirable/
Gaston Berger http://www.prospective.fr/lattitude-prospective/
Otto Scharmer - Leading from the emerging future http://www.monasterra.org/inspirations/theorie-u-diriger-a-partir-du-futur-emergent-otto-scharmer/
Damon Julien, "The thought of... - Gaston Berger (1896-1960)", Informations sociales, 2005/8 (n° 128), p. 95-95. DOI : 10.3917/inso.128.0095. URL: https: //www.cairn.info/revue-informations-sociales-2005-8-page-95.htm
Institut Montaigne Michel Godet https://www.institutmontaigne.org/qui-sommes-nous
Revue Management et Avenir - Le scénario prospectif, outil d'exploration de l'intention stratégique? https://www.cairn.info/revue-management-et-avenir-2008-3-page-298.htm#
Futurible https://www.futuribles.com/fr/
2100 tale of the next century https://2100.org/gaudin/90/2100-recit-prochain-siecle/
Bright Mirror: prototype your desirable future! https://bluenove.com/blog/bright-mirror-prototypez-votre-futur-desirable/
Reporterre - Histoire du futur la société post-effondrementhttps://reporterre.net/Histoire-du-futur-la-societe-post-effondrement
Le cercle de la prospective http://www.laprospective.fr/methodes-de-prospective.html
Hufftington Post - 7 great futurists give us their surprising predictions for the next decade https://www.huffingtonpost.fr/2016/01/03/predictions-futurologues-decennie-cest-demain_n_8899542.html
Les Echos - The futurist's toolbox https://www.lesechos.fr/1996/10/la-boite-a-outils-du-prospectiviste-842925
Société Française de prospective https://www.societefrancaisedeprospective.fr/prospective/
Les éditions Dunona - Anamnèse du futur https://blog.leseditionsdunona.com/futurologie-non-aristotelicienne/
Film Demain- https://maison4tiers.com/product/demain/
Happymorphose - https://mouvancehappymorphose.com/
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