Climate resilience... through prevention and respect for the law

Lagos, Nigeria

Over the past 10 years, a new category of citizens has emerged, known as climatic nomads. These people have been living by the sea for over 1,000 years, and now when the sea rises during the high tides, it invades their homes, making them uninhabitable for several months of the year. While waiting for the low tides, these people live elsewhere.

In Uvira, Democratic Republic of Congo

When the rains fall heavily, they run off the mountains, become torrents and join rivers and lakes. Bridges are under-dimensioned, as they are not designed to cope with such flows, which are linked to global warming. This water rushes under bridges, and behind them, riverbanks erode and city districts collapse.

What's the difference between the two?

On the one hand, Lagos benefits from a much higher level of building know-how than Uvira. After the sea has passed, the buildings in Lagos are still standing, whereas those in Uvira, built more traditionally with makeshift materials, are going with the current.

"Lagos, 2050
In the sprawling megalopolis, which sprawls over 1,000 square kilometers, 15 to 18 million inhabitants are crowded together. The world's governments have failed to agree not only to respect the Paris Agreement, but also to help African states adapt to the predicted catastrophe. The global temperature has risen by 2.7 degrees (IPCC RCP-4.5 scenario) and the sea has risen by 25 to 30 cm, reaching 80 cm in places, or even 1.50 meters in the event of an extreme event (SSP2-4.5 scenario).

Of the 20 districts making up the city of Lagos, originally built on a lagoon, 14 are entirely under water, and 82% of wetlands have been affected by rising seas, resulting in a loss of biodiversity and destruction of associated ecosystems. More than 3 million people are affected by this rise and by global warming, 1.5 million of whom have had to be relocated as best they can, and 2 million live in poverty or extreme poverty. As a result of the advancing Atlantic Ocean, 400 health centers have ceased to function, depriving over 2 million people of access to healthcare.

More than 500 schools were also forced to close, preventing access to education for over 500,000 students...

To prepare Nigeria's largest city for the consequences of global warming, the Boston Consulting Group has modeled the human and financial consequences to 2050 and presented a resilience plan to 2030. All that remains is to find the financiers..."

Source : COP 27: Lagos, emblem of adaptation in Africa - dec 2022
https://www.lesechos.fr/weekend/planete/cop-27-lagos-embleme-de-ladaptation-en-afrique-1915198

In 2023, Uvira, a city of 700,000 inhabitants, is left almost entirely to its own devices. A few international NGOs are monitoring the situation, but in the meantime 150,000 people have lost their homes. Some 80% of them are living in makeshift tents, abandoned to their fate. This is a national climate disaster, and it's up to the country to pay the aid. So far, national and international aid has been extremely limited.

The Swiss NGO ECOSYSTEM VLG world has been working in the area for several years, mapping risk zones to prevent further disasters.

"PRIORITY ACTION AREAS
The city is currently facing two serious environmental problems, including flooding and erosion linked to climate change and human activities.

Flooding
From the 1900s to the present day, the town of Uvira has been affected by recurrent flooding, causing enormous loss of life and material damage. For example, the Kamongola, Kalimabenge, Nyarumanga, Mulongwe and Kavimvira rivers have experienced more than 64 floods, causing more than 163 deaths and a great deal of material damage (10,393 houses destroyed and buried, destruction of several schools, health centers, churches, etc.).

Erosion

The city is also threatened by erosive effects, including landslides (over 120), gullies (over 90, some of which have isolated avenues and neighborhoods), the RN5 road cut off in several places, and erosion of river banks.

From the above, it is clear that the town of Uvira is doomed to disappear if nothing is done. This is why the CRH-UVIRA team of consultants decided to draw up this report with a view to finding solutions to these threats.

Solution strategies

Map erosion patterns, flood zones and high-risk areas;
Determine the climate and hydrology of Uvira's watersheds;
Implement the anti-erosion program and restore the vegetation cover in the river basins crossing the town of Uvira;
Protect the habitat threatened by these scourges;
Implement disaster control and prevention strategies.
Raising public awareness of agricultural practices
Environmental protection,
Compliance with legislation on the occupation of coastal, riparian and high-risk zones".

Source : Rapport intermédiaire : Rapport sur les Inondations dans la Ville d'Uvira 2023 - https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Pfp9Ik2nM3CrsJTtDI66HbiyaoTJ8k2CFPwZpyoHMzM/edit?usp=sharing

If we take up the points one by one:

• Mapping forms of erosion: Yes, it's possible, because land that is about to collapse has specific erosion characteristics. This means that this kind of disaster can in many cases be anticipated.
  

• Determine the climate and the hydrology of Uvira's watersheds, because a disaster doesn't strike at random. If there are rainfall disturbances, they create hydrological disturbances such as recurrent flooding.
  

• Implement the anti-erosion program... A stable soil is more resilient and stronger in the face of aggressions such as flooding than a soil damaged by other phenomena such as deforestation, intensive farming and repeated droughts. A healthy soil is better able to resist aggression.

• In some cases, as in the case of rising sea levels, we can anticipate them, and if we can anticipate them, we can protect against them for a while. After that, it's a question of means. In Japan, there are gigantic walls along the coasts, while in France, the seashores are protected by huge stones. After that, there's a certain limit to what can be done, and you have to prepare for final evacuation.

• Implementing disaster control and prevention strategies. The more we observe and investigate, the better we'll be able to assess the situation and put in place good prevention strategies.
  

• It's important to remember that today, there is little or no funding dedicated to prevention. All aid is focused on crisis and victim management. We need to rethink our approach, because if we can prevent disasters, we can drastically reduce the number of victims.

• Raising public awareness... of agricultural practices, of good practices in general to avoid a crisis or, in extreme cases, to manage it properly. This can be learned. Empowerment in the face of crisis can be learned, as can the implementation of preventive evacuation plans.
  

• Protecting the environment: crisis or no crisis, it's always positive to look in this direction to preserve our heritage. Clean air to breathe, water to hydrate and source of life...
  

• Respecting legislation on the occupation of coastal, riparian and high-risk areas. This is a fundamental problem. Before disaster strikes if it cannot be stopped, there are events and warning signs on which laws can be based. Like the ban on building or rebuilding in flood-prone areas.
  

This is the biggest obstacle to be overcome at the level of individuals and populations. The poorer a population is, the less it will have the financial and psychological means to escape from its environment and find safety, since insecurity at other levels, such as financial, is already part of its daily life.

On the other hand, if we take the case of Western countries, when your insurer refuses to insure you or your building, first of all, ask yourself what the underlying problem is. Insurance companies insure small risks, but not large ones. And above all, without insurance, you won't be able to rebuild, which in the final analysis is a positive turn of events.

Water is worse than fire. Once water has gone somewhere, it rots or destroys everything, and in the case of floods, it always comes back where it went. And hydrology is a science with rules and evaluation tools. If a hydrologist advises you to evacuate, you must evacuate and build elsewhere.

If climate change was considered fanciful just a few years ago, it's a reality that's beginning to take shape, but it's not catastrophic if the changes are anticipated. And anticipating, becoming a hydrologist and, in the worst case, managing crises, can be learned.

Image - Pixabay - Hermann Traub