The warning signs of a tipping point

Whether we're running a business, writing a thesis or playing a game of soccer, in the heat of the moment the information we receive modulates our responses, all geared towards achieving the goal, whatever it may be. Whether success is approaching or seems to be slipping away, as long as we feel in control, our objectives are maintained and we respond to situations as best we can. When control gets out of hand, when we cease to believe that the objective is attainable, or when we realize that it has been far exceeded, then we need to question ourselves... But what is the tipping point that leads us to depart from the plan or activate exceptional procedures?

Significant breakthroughs don't happen by chance; they're prepared gradually, put in place discreetly and always announced by various warning signs. Whether it's a great victory, a stinging defeat, a persistent stalemate, a remarkable achievement or a heavy catastrophe, in hindsight we'll systematically find the clues that heralded them.

Earthquakes are preceded by cracks under accumulated pressure, an exceptional performance by successive training, discipline and success, a financial crisis is heralded by systematic abuse, a great discovery by a new point of view... but all these harbingers share one characteristic: they force something to give way.

Paradoxical discouragement

You may have experienced that feeling of "not being able to do it" when faced with a task that, at a certain point, seems out of proportion. The term "inordinate" perfectly expresses the problem of poor effort assessment. Discouragement is also one of the best harbingers of a major change to come: we can't go on like this, something has to change.

• The researcher tackling a new field is sometimes discouraged by the apparent complexity of the field to be covered. The problem only seems to get more complex, until... a boundary appears, and elements start to connect. Then he begins to see the whole problem.
  
  How he got there is essentially down to hard work and perseverance: the pressure he built up, despite discouragement. The first level of discouragement encourages a little more effort, if only out of pride.
  
  
• At the second level, the pressure becomes so great that it's either his organization, his health or his certainties that crack. The researcher has to change something. Here again, discouragement heralds a breaking point: something has to change.
  
  When Max Planck (8) decided to admit the discontinuity in the value of wave radiation, a hypothesis he had rejected on principle, it was out of spite and after thousands of hours of work. He finally decided to consider the problem from this point of view. The consequences of his discovery, beyond the intense exaltation he derived from it, surpassed anything he could have imagined; he opened the era of quantum physics.
  

Thesis writers know all about these successive phases of enthusiasm and discouragement (1). Rather than sink into the abyss of despair or cynicism, they perfect their method, ask for help, increase their discipline, develop new skills, take to the air, discuss, add new elements, take a new direction, change thesis directors or start again on a new footing, but in all cases, the tipping point remains the one where pressure breaks down an obstacle, takes advantage of a weakness and leads to a reconsideration of the situation.

When an entrepreneur decides to make a radical change to his operations, it's not because everything is out of control, but rather because the situation looks untenable, whether due to unbridled growth or a major slowdown (2,3). Strangely enough, enthusiasm appears as soon as a change is decided, or a return to control is envisaged, after a phase of worry, unease or discouragement.

The same situation can also arise for workers who have lost a sense of purpose in their work, and who have few internal opportunities for change. It's a well-known fact that permanent tension without an outlet turns against the individual himself: he becomes ill, depressed, derailed, disengaged in one way or another. Hence the need for better human resources management practices, which at their core identify these signs of discouragement (4). The job seeker may have more freedom, but is often under increasing financial strain, prompting him or her to be more audacious and to revise his or her considerations (5).

On a social level, the fermenting force behind revolutions is the same formula: discouragement, followed by the "it can't go on like this, something's got to change", which leads to a reappraisal that, although it may be hindered, runs the risk of inevitable decay and the loss of vital forces (6). At present, whether in environmental or economic terms, it seems that the paradoxical discouragement has not yet won over the majority who have their say. We collectively understand the idea that we're heading for catastrophe, but we're still blithely going along for the ride. The emotional tipping point has not yet been crossed (7).

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But when the failure is obvious, or the victory too overwhelming, it's because the pressure isn't being resisted, we're no longer talking about discouragement or celebration, a threshold has been crossed. In the absence of having been able to bring about change at the right time, the reality of the situation imposes itself. When a child's status changes, it's a breakthrough towards autonomy and greater freedom, with all the accompanying uncertainties. When a team is called upon to change category, the level of competition calls for an evolution in its practices. If nothing changes, reality will soon remind us of the new conditions, and pressure will once again build up.

Pressure and change

Without pressure variation, everything remains stable. Pressure variation is one of the harbingers of change. A system like a steam engine is designed to transform this pressure into motion in a controlled cycle. Discouragement and enthusiasm can be managed in the same way: pressure - movement - relaxation, and discouragement can no longer be seen as a negative state, but as a sign of necessary change.

Some people learn from failures and victories, while others learn only bitterness or pride. Why do some evolve while others sink a little deeper? Some change, cross a threshold, make a breakthrough, others don't.

Illustration: 2262838677

References

1- Writing a thesis: a long, not at all tranquil river - Alexandre Roberge - Thot Cursus
https://cursus.edu/fr/12720/redaction-dune-these-le-long-fleuve-pas-du-tout-tranquille

2- Resilience, the entrepreneur's fabulous ability to bounce back - Claudine Auger - Gestion HEC Montréal
https://www.revuegestion.ca/la-resilience-cette-fabuleuse-capacite-a-rebondir-de-l-entrepreneur

3- La face cachée de l'entrepreneuriat: seuls au combat? - Isabelle Massé - La Presse
https://www.lapresse.ca/affaires/entreprises/2019-11-23/la-face-cachee-de-l-entrepreneuriat-seuls-au-combat

4- Employee demotivation: what signs, what solutions? - Signa RH
https://www.sigma-rh.com/fr-ca/blogue/Demotivation-au-travail-signes-et-solutions/

5- How to deal with discouragement when looking for a job? - Yasmina Benmira - L'oeil du recruteur
https://oeildurecruteur.ca/decouragement-recherche-demploi/

6- German Peasants' War - Wikipedia
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guerre_des_Paysans_allemands

7- Research, the pillar of today's excess, serves the will to power
https://www.piecesetmaindoeuvre.com/brut/une-tribune-de-francois-graner-dans-le-monde-la-recherche-pilier-de-la-demesure

8- Max Planck - Wikipedia - https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Max_Planck

Predicting the unpredictable: now within our grasp - Denys Lamontagne- Thot Cursus
https://cursus.edu/fr/21453/predire-limprevisible-maintenant-a-notre-portee

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